2012 Bend Home Sales Near 2006 Levels

After plateauing in 2011 following two years of notable improvement, the number of homes sold in Bend increased significantly last year, approaching levels not seen since the delirious days of 2006.

After peaking at 2,884 sales in 2005,  2,088 homes were sold in 2006 as the market began to teeter over the 2nd half of that year.  Home sales dropped precipitously in the following years, hitting a low of 1,121 in 2008.  But in 2009 buyers began to take advantage of  prices that were about 40% lower than they had been at the market's peak, and sales rebounded to 1,556 that year.  Sales volume increased again in 2010, but at a much slower rate, to 1,681 homes sold.    

But despite the number of sales in 2006 and 2012 being somewhat similar, that's where any real resemblance between the two years ends.  In 2006, the median sale price was $187.98/sf, or $350,581 for a 1865 square foot house.  Last year, that number was $118.91/sf ($222,000 for 1867sf).  That's a discount of 36.7%!  And let's not forget that the average interest rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage in 2006 was 6.41%, compared with 3.66% last year!  Now that's a breathtaking increase in purchasing power!

Let me know your thoughts on where you think the Bend real estate market is headed in 2013 and beyond by writing your comments below.  And please be sure to call me at 541.410.9060 for any real estate help or advice you, your family or friends may need. 

Bend Housing Market Robust

To quickly answer your question why it's been nearly seven and a half months since I last posted.....no, I didn't die....or retire....or find another career.  In fact, the answer is quite the opposite.  2012 has been one of the busiest years in a long time for me, and quite honestly, I haven't been very effective at carving out the time to put the numbers together and share my thoughts here about the real estate market in Bend (I suppose that's obvious!).  Anyway, as you'll see below, the market in Bend has been cranking this year too.....so let's jump right in and have a look!

This past Sunday marked the end of the 3rd quarter, providing a good time to look back over 2012 and compare it to where we were at this time last year.  Through September, the number of closed sales is up 17.1%....and the median sales price to date is 12.3% higher.  Even on a dollar-per-square-foot basis (which I think is more useful than the median price of recently sold homes when comparing the overall change in market value), the price per square foot paid for stick built houses on one acre or less in Bend so far this year has increased from $106.00/sf to $116.42/sf , 9.4%% higher.

The 3rd quarter was no exception.....in fact, the pace of sales and the rate at which prices rose accelerated over the past 3 months.  The number of houses sold increased 25.2% from the same period last year, from 425 homes sold to 532.  The median price increased to $235k from $205k (14.6%) and the price paid per square foot jumped 10%, from $112.89/sf to $124.21/sf in Q3 this year.

The amount of time it took to sell a home in the 3rd quarter remained essentially the same from last year, averaging about 4 to 4.5 months from the time a home is listed for sale until a sale is closed.

Please call or email me with any questions you may have, or to talk specifics about buying a home in Central Oregon or selling one you currently own in the area.

3rd Quarter Sales Show Stability In Bend Housing Market

The median price of homes sold in the 3rd quarter increased 5.1% from a year earlier, while sales volume was nearly identical.  Prices also climbed 3.3% on a square foot basis.

The median sale price for homes sold in the July through September period was $205,000, up from $195,000 for the same period a year ago. And the median price paid per square foot was $112.95 in Q3, compared to $109.30 in 2010.


422 houses were reported sold in the 3rd quarter, almost the equivalent of the 421 sold a year ago.

Through the first 9 months of the year, sales volume in Bend is up 1.8%.  Prices are down slightly; the median price paid in 2011 to date is $192.5K ($106/sf) compared to $195k (107.62/sf) over the same period in 2010.

With historically low interest rates (around 4.125% for a 30 year fixed rate loan) and a relatively tight rental market (good, clean rentals aren't available for very long), I expect this stability to continue in to the foreseeable future. 

If you're curious to know what your house is currently worth, or want to find out exactly what you can afford to buy in today's low rate environment, please give me a call at 541.410.9060.

Bend Home Sales Slow, Prices Mixed

Single family home sales in Bend slowed from a year earlier in June, while prices continued to show some stability.  139 closed sales were reported to the MLS of Central Oregon last month, compared to 152 a year ago.  The median sale price was $210,000, down 3.21% from June 2010.  On a square foot basis however, prices increased 6.21% to $116.67/sf.

The number of closed short sales increased 23.33% and were more common last month than bank-owned foreclosure sales, which declined 32.5% from a year earlier.  Short Sales accounted for 26.6% of all stick-built, single family homes in Bend last month, while foreclosures made up 19.4%.   

Cold Weather Put A Chill In April Home Sales....Or Did It?

Colder-than-average temperatures last month put a damper on annual garden blooms in Central Oregon.  And at first glance, the chilly weather seems to have affected the pace of local home sales as well.  

Data from the MLS of Central Oregon shows 133 homes on less than one acre of land were sold in April, down from 156 a year earlier. But was the weather the actual reason sales declined nearly 15%?

Another factor to consider is that the inventory of homes for sale is down about 25% from a year earlier.  With more than 200 fewer houses on the market, the absorption rate went from about 19.4% a year ago to about 25% last month.  In other words, while there was about 5 months worth of available housing inventory at this time last year, today there is only about 4 months.

My guess is that the weather won't be the only thing warming up; watch for price stability and, dare I say, maybe even price increases in some market segments, this summer!

Cash Sales Account For Nearly 1 In 3 Home Sales In Bend

The MLS of Central Oregon now provides data on the financing terms used for all closed sales, thanks to the efforts of yours truly.  I had requested this search feature be added because of a perceived increase in all cash sales.  And those perceptions proved true in February, though not necessarily by as much as I'd expected.

36 of the 111 sales of stick built houses on less than an acre in Bend last month were bought for all cash.  I would think 32% of the total sales selling for cash would represent a big increase from a year ago.  But data in the MLS shows that 30 of the 111 sold in February a year ago were also purchased with all cash (27%).  Nevertheless, the additional 6 cash sales does represent a 20% increase from 2010.

I'll make it a point to regularly track cash sales and share the results here with you.  Let me know if there are any other trends you'd be interested in and I'll try to provide them to you.

Does The Bend Housing Market Now Favor Sellers?

The sales pace in February for single family homes on less than an acre would seem to indicate that sellers are now calling the shots in the Bend housing market.

There were 109 houses sold in February in Bend and 414 finished homes are currently listed for sale, resulting in less than 3.8 months of available inventory.  A market has typically been considered  "balanced," favoring neither buyers nor sellers, when there are about 6 months of inventory available.  But with so many distressed properties and a double digit unemployment rate, how can this be true in Bend today?

One explanation I have is that banks are being very careful in controlling the number of foreclosed homes they list for sale in an effort to avoid flooding the market and driving prices even lower.  And a quick analysis seems to bear that out.

As I write this, only 46 of the 414 currently active single family home listings in Bend are shown to be foreclosures.  That's 11.1% of the market.  But similar bank-owned properties accounted for 43% of homes sold last month!

So while only about 1 in 10 houses for sale in Bend are foreclosures, more than 4 of every 10 sold are bank-owned.  Can and will this trend continue?  Let me know your thoughts by replying in the comments section below.

Bend Housing Affordability Reaches Record High

The 4th quarter of 2010 marked the most affordable time period for buying a home in the Bend region since the area was first included as a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) at the beginning of 2006, according to an index released quarterly by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

The Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) showed that 78.2% of new and existing houses sold in the Bend area in the last quarter of 2010 were affordable to families earning the median income of $63,200.  It marked just the third time (and 3rd straight quarter) that the index was above 70%. 

Prior to the first quarter of 2009, the affordability index had never reached higher that 40.1% locally, and hit an all time low of 14.7% in Q1 2007, when the median sale price was $310,000, according to data from the association.

The Bend area was ranked the 133 most affordable MSA in the 4th quarter, out of 223 nationally.  This is by far the highest ranking for our area since being designated as a MSA in 2006.  To put this in perspective, we were ranked 199, 209, 211 and 207 in 2008, and never higher than 140, way back in the first quarter of 2006.

With interest rates on mortgage loans trending upward, now really is a fantastic time to buy a home.  Call me today to get started!

Foreclosures Drag Bend Home Prices Lower

The median price per square foot paid in Bend last year for stick built houses on less than one acre was $104.66.   But this figure differs dramatically depending on the type of sale.

While the overall median price per square foot paid in 2010 was down 6.6% from a year earlier, the price per square foot for all "traditional" sales (not a foreclosure or short sale) decreased by less than half that, down just 3% from 2009.

And short sales, besides seeing a jump of more than 20% in the number of successful deals last year, had a 6.2% lower median price per square foot than those from a year earlier.

So where does this leave foreclosures?  The median price per square foot paid for "bank owned" properties plunged 11.1% last year.  At $87.32 per square foot, foreclosed houses sold for a whopping 30.9% discount from traditional sales!

While I'll agree that there is more perceived risk in buying a foreclosure (seller's are exempt from disclosing to a buyer any defects affecting the property, for example) and that many need at least minor repairs (paint and carpet, etc.), a discount of 31% seems a bit extreme.

As a result, and as many buyers and investors are discovering, foreclosures are providing some truly fantastic buys, even in today's choppy market.

Let me know your thoughts by posting your comments below. 

Bend January Home Sales Highest Since 2007

125 stick-built houses on less than one acre closed escrow last month, the highest total for January since 135 were sold in 2007.

Sales increased more than 21% from a year earlier, and nearly doubled the anemic volumes of both January 2009 and 2008, when just 69 and 75 houses were reported sold respectively.

The increase in sales is directly related to the decrease in prices.  January's median sale price was $191,000, or $104.66 per square foot.  This is down 6.6% from a year earlier and more than 41.5% from January 2007, when the median sale price for the month was $327,900, or $178.98 per square foot.

Combined with interest rates still near historical lows (the rate on a 30 year fixed is around 5%), now really is a fantastic time to buy property in Bend and throughout Central Oregon.  Call me today to find out how you can take advantage of the great opportunities in today's market.

Bend Home Sales Volume Up 7.9% In 2010

1687 stick-built houses on less than one acre in Bend were sold last year, an increase of 7.9% from 2009. 

The mix of sales was little changed from a year earlier.  723 of the houses sold (42.9% of the total) were "traditional" sales, while 579 (34.3%) were foreclosures and 385 (22.8%) were short sales. 

In 2009, 680 (43.5% of the 1564 houses sold) were "traditional" sales, 564 (36.1%) were forclosures and 320 (20.5%) were short sales.

More than half of the 123 additional houses sold in Bend last year were short sales, while only 15 were foreclosures.  43 more "traditional" sales closed in 2010.

On a price per square foot basis, the median price was down 6.6% from a year earlier.  In my next post, I will cover some very interesting details of what accounted for most of the price decrease.

In the meantime, if you or someone you know is considering a move, please call me.  I represent both buyers and sellers, have experience in handling the sale of traditional, short and foreclosure properties and am recognized as a Certified Distressed Property Expert by the Distressed Property Institute.

Bend Home Sales, Prices Down In 4th Quarter

Data garnered from the MLS of Central Oregon shows that both the pace of sales and home prices declined from a year earlier in the 4th quarter.

441 sales were reported sold in the October thru December period, a decline of 15% from the same period in 2009, when 519 houses closed escrow.  Though down on a year-over-year basis, sales volume increased by 21 houses (5%) when compared to the 3rd quarter of 2010.

Prices also declined in the 4th quarter.  The median sale price of homes sold during the last 3 months of 2010 was $185k, with a corresponding price per square foot of $99.73.  In 4th quarter of 2009, the median sale price was $216,745 and the price per square foot was $111.72.

Home buyers, including investors, are taking advantage of the lower prices.  The amount of housing inventory for sale compared to the pace of sales reached its lowest level in nearly 5 years in December, with only 3.9 months of inventory available.  This equates to an absorption rate of 25.7%, or more than 1 in 4 houses listed for sale being sold in the last 30 days.  We haven't seen numbers like this since the Spring of 2006!

If you've entertained the thought of selling your house, you'll have less competition now than at any time in almost 5 years!  Call me to find out what you can sell your house for today and how long you should expect it to take to sell.

Average Credit Scores Of Central Oregon Feeder Markets Among Highest In US

According to a study released by credit scoring company Experian, metropolitan areas from which many Central Oregon home buyers relocate have some of the highest average credit scores in the country.¹

Credit Scores May Hamper Housing Comeback - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Most of us know at least a few people who have experienced a financial hardship over the last couple of years. Even if the setback was only temporary, the resulting damage done to their credit scores often continues to haunt these folks, and obtaining credit has become a seemingly insurmountable problem for many of them. According to an analysis done by Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, nearly 1 in 3 Americans may be unable to qualify for a home loan because their credit scores are too low!

Fannie Mae Can't Sell Them Fast Enough!

Banks and other such institutions are the most highly motivated sellers you'll find in today's real estate market.  For a number of reasons, they don't want foreclosed properties on their books and will typically price them aggressively in order to attract a buyer as quickly as possible.  (Short sales are another story, but I'll get in to that in a later post).

But apparently Fannie Mae feels that low prices aren't enough; it is sweetening the pie even more by offering to pay up to 3.5% in closing cost assistance as an incentive to buy one of the houses it has foreclosed on!   And part of the money can even be put towards the purchase of a home warranty!

Good Things To Come?

Despite the downturn in closed sales over the last two months (which I attribute to sales being pulled forward due to the Homebuyer's Tax Credit), pending homes sales reached the highest level for any month this year, and the most since October 2009.

206 home sales were showing as "pending" at the end of August.  With roughly 825 houses currently listed for sale, the number of pending sales results in just 4 months of available inventory, the lowest amount in over 3 years!

While not all of the 206 pending sales will close, a large percentage will and this bodes well for the Bend real estate market.

Home Sales Pace Slows

My apologies for not having posted for sometime.  My father has been diagnosed with mesothelioma ("asbestos cancer") and I've been helping him seek and get treatment.  Many thanks to all of you who have offered your support, prayers and best wishes as we continue to battle.

After increasing for the last several months, the pace of home sales in Bend slowed for the second month in a row in August.  118 single family houses on one acre or less were reported sold last month, down from 141 in July and from 135 the same month a year ago.

Pending Home Sales Remain Healthy Locally

Though there was a slight uptick in home sales just prior to the expiration of the $8000 homebuyer's tax credit (buyers were required to be under contract by April 30 in order to qualify), it doesn't appear that the credit was a driving factor in leading home sales higher in Central Oregon.

After a slight decline in May following the passing of the tax credit deadline, pending home sales in Bend increased again in June, registering an 11% improvement from a year earlier.

Pending sales (those under contract but not yet closed) increased to 164 houses last month, up from 156 in May and 148 in June 2009.

The 164 pending sales in June was also an increase of more than 50% from the same month 2 years ago.

Traditional Transactions Lead Home Sales Higher

Home sales in Bend increased 9.35% in June from a year earlier.  Although sales volume has been increasing on a year-over-year basis for several months now, what makes June's numbers more remarkable is that traditional sales accounted for the entire uptick last month.  In fact, both the number of bank-owned transactions and short sales declined in June from a year ago while traditional sales increased by more than 22%!

The price per square foot paid for homes sold last month was down 3.21% from 12 months ago but, at $109.63/sf, last month's median price per square foot price is 4.7% higher than the $104.74/sf for sales through the first 5 months of this year.

Expiration Of Tax Credit Doesn't Deter Buyers

There is a lot of news in the press about an alleged slowdown in home sales since the expiration of the $8,0000 homebuyer's tax credit on April 30th.  While I don't have first hand knowledge of all the markets across the country, I can tell you that passing of the deadline was little more than a bump in the road locally.

Since May 1, no less than 240 houses have gone under contract with home buyers who seem to be taking advantage of historically low interest rates combined with a significant reduction in home prices over the last 3 years, tax credits be damned.

Makes one wonder if the credits were even necessary for reviving the housing market to begin with, especially considering the enormous deficits state and federal governments face for years to come due to unprecedented spending.

Let me know your thoughts.