A Tale Of Two Markets

While home sales in Bend have increased from year earlier levels every month since February, breaking down the numbers to see what is selling reveals two vastly different markets.

Of the 176 closed sales last month, 35 sold from between $150k and $200k. Another 41 sold between $100k and $150k. And 7 sold for less than $100k. There are currently 213 houses listed for $200k or less. (I remember in the not too distant past when it was nearly impossible to find a house in Bend for less than $300k. But that's a story for another time!) At November's sales rate, there is just a little more than 2.5 months of inventory in this price range. To put it another way, it would only take until about the end of February to sell all the houses currently listed for $200k or less.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 121 houses listed from between $500k and $1 million. There were 11 closed sales in this price range in November. This equates to 11 months of inventory. And as you might guess, the higher the price range, the greater the number of months of available inventory.

Over the past 12 months, there have been 20 sales from $750k to $1 million in Bend. 40 houses are currently listed for sale in this price range. That's 2 years of available inventory using the sales rate over the last year! But things may be getting a bit better in the higher end of the market; last month, 3 houses closed escrow with sale prices from $860k to $975k.

To find out how much your house is worth and how long it should take to sell, call or email me. As always, there's no cost or obligation.

Are You Stupid For Not Buying A House Now?

A recent article in BusinessWeek makes a good case for buying a home now while interest rates are at/near historical lows rather than waiting to see if home prices might decline further.

Also keep in mind that most home buyers qualify for a tax credit if they buy a house before June 30, 2010.

Lastly, there is talk that the down payment for FHA loans will increase to 5% of the purchase price from 3.5% today. For a $250,000 house, that means that you'll be required to come up with an additional $3750 down.

As the article's author states, "If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime."

Bend's November Home Sales Highest Since 2005

The number of closed home sales in Bend last month increased by more than 129% from a year ago. The 165 sales are the most for the month of November since 2005, when 252 sales were reported near the peak of home selling activity in Central Oregon.

Distressed sales continued to account for a large part of the overall number of closed sales, with bank owned/foreclosed properties making up 35.8% (59 houses) of the total sales and short sales an additional 23.6% (39 houses).

Home prices have reached a plateau, at least for the time being. With a median sale price of $116.33/sf, November marked the fourth consecutive month, and the sixth time in the last seven months, that the median sale price has been $113/sf or more.

Bend Home Sales Continue Strong Rebound

With more than a week remaining in the month, closed home sales in Bend already exceed year ago levels by nearly 50%!

72 homes were sold in the entire month of November 2008. So far this month, 105 sales have been reported to the MLS of Central Oregon. There were 112 sales in November 2007.

With 5 business days remaining, it's almost certain that we'll exceed the number of closed sales from 2 years ago and make a run at the 139 sold in November 2006.

I'll be sure to post the final number for the month once they're available.

Million Dollar Home Sales Up In October

11 properties in the Bend area priced at one million dollars or more closed escrow last month, a huge increase from September when just 3 such properties were reported sold. In fact, only 8 properties with prices of one million dollars or more were reported sold in the entire 3rd quarter of this year.

Another 5 properties priced at or above one million dollars have accepted purchase contracts just since October 1.

While many of these property sellers may feel like they're selling at a steep discount relative to values of a few years ago, it's a great sign for the overall market that higher end properties are starting to move again!

Congress Passes Bill Extending Homebuyer's Tax Credit

The House of Representatives passed a bill earlier today extending unemployment benefits up to an additional 20 weeks. As part of the bill, the tax credit for first time homebuyers was extended and expanded to include a $6500 credit for buyers who purchase a primary residence if they've lived in their current house for at least the last five years.

The tax credit, which was scheduled to expire on December 1, was extended to include those purchase contracts signed by April 30 and closed by June 30.

In addition, the maximum qualifying income levels were increased to $125,000 for single filers and $225,000 for joint filers.

The Senate passed the bill yesterday and President Obama is expected to sign the bill in to law tomorrow.

October Homes Sales Highest In Over Three Years

Single family home sales in Bend reached a level not seen since August 2006 last month.

There were 172 closed sales reported to the MLS of Central Oregon in October. We have to go back more than 3 years to find a month with more sales; 200 transactions closed in August 2006. The next closest monthly sales number over the last 3+ years was 159 in March 2007.

The 172 sales represents an increase of 52.2% from October 2008 and a gain of 13.2% from the 152 closed in September.

Distressed property sales continued to drive the market, with 59 bank owned and 35 "short sales" closing last month, amounting to more than half of all sales (54.7%).

The dollar per square foot price seems to have flattened out, as October's median of $113.93/sf is the 4th time in the last 5 months where $/sf has come in between $109/sf and $114/sf. (The low for the year incidentally was $105/sf in April, while the high was $125/sf in January. The average for the 1st 10 months of this year is $113.5/sf).

There are still many good buys out there and more short sales are coming together each month, so if you're in the market to buy or sell, please give me a call to discuss your situation.

Extension of Homebuyer Tax Credit All But Certain

The Obama administration has come out in favor of extending the tax credit offered to homebuyers who have not owned a primary residence in the last 3 years.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan issued a statement earlier today that reads, in part, "this credit has made the difference in bringing new families into the housing market. Those buyers, in turn, have reduced the inventory of unsold homes and contributed to three months in a row of increases in home prices nationwide. A stronger housing market benefits homeowners and strengthens the financial system."

And it appears that the plan may be expanded to provide a new credit of $6500 to those buyers who have owned their current primary residence for at least the last five years. In addition, there is talk of increasing the maximum qualifying income limit from $75,000 to $125,000 for an individual and to $225,000 from $150,000 for couples.

Though the proposal must still pass through both houses of Congress, it looks all but certain that the tax credit will at least be extended, and likely expanded to include more homebuyers.

I'm aware of a number of buyers who have been reluctant to make offers, especially on short sales, for fear that their deal won't close escrow in time to take advantage of the credit. An extension of the tax credit will certainly encourage more people to buy now.

Senators Extend Tax Credit For Homebuyers

According to the Associated Press, the Senate has agreed to extend a tax credit for 1st time homebuyers that was set to expire December 1, and to expand it to include some repeat buyers.

Regan Lachapelle, a spokeswoman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, said that Senators have agreed to extend the tax credit while also offering a credit of up to $6500 to buyers who have owned their current principal residence for at least the last five years.

A congressional aide speaking anonymously to the AP also said that the tax credit would be available to buyers who sign purchase contracts by the end of April for transactions closing by the end of June.

The full Senate could vote on the bill as soon as tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Senate Democrats Agree To Extend Tax Credit

Reuters reported today that Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said that senior Democrats in the Senate have agreed to extend the first time homebuyers tax credit, which is scheduled to expire on December 1.

Dodd has earlier indicated that he'd like to extend the credit through June 30, 2010 and expand it to include all buyers purchasing a primary residence. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has backed a version that would extend the full credit until the end of March and then phase it out through 2010.

No details were released but according to Dodd, the agreement reached would blend these two proposals.

Bend Housing Market "Balanced?"

A widely-held theory is that about 6 months of available inventory represents a "balanced" or "neutral" real estate market, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. At September's rate of sales, the Bend area housing market has reached this balanced, neutral position.

There were 148 stick built houses on less than an acre reported sold in Bend for the month of September. There are currently 878 houses in Bend currently listed for sale in the MLS of Central Oregon. Dividing 878 by 148 gives us 5.93, which represents the "absorption rate," or the number of months it would take to "absorb" all of the houses listed today at September's sales pace.

Though different price ranges yield vastly different absorption rates, the overall market in Bend continues to show improvement.

Distressed Property Transactions Lead Sales Higher

Bank-owned properties, despite making up only about 6.6% of all houses listed for sale in Bend, accounted for more than 1 in every 3 houses reported sold in September.

According to data pulled from the MLS of Central Oregon, 139 sales of stick built houses on less than 1 acre closed escrow last month. Of these, 53 were bank-owned. In addition, 29 of the 139 sales were "short sales," which occur when a lender agrees to accept less than what is owed on the property.

September, 3rd Quarter Sales Continue Upward Trend

Lower prices, a wide array of houses to choose from and near record low interest rates helped sales of single family homes in the Bend area increase 13.9% in September from a year earlier. And for the 3rd quarter, sales activity was up 32.4% from the 3rd quarter of 2008, according to data compiled from the MLS of Central Oregon.

Brisk Summer Home Sales Continue

The pace of home sales in Bend continued on an upward trend in August, with 131 reported closed sales in the month. This represents an increase of 36.5% from August 2008.

The upswing in sales has been driven by lower prices, with the median sale price for homes sold last month down 21.7% from a year earlier, to $220,000.

Though down year-over-year, August's median sale price was above the median price for sales during the first 7 months of the year ($215,000) and higher than July's median sale price of $217,000. (April's median sale price of $195,000 was the lowest year-to-date, and the lowest since at least April 2005).

I welcome your comments and questions.

Bend Home Sales Soar

Sales of stick built houses on less than one acre jumped 39.5% in July from a year earlier. 152 closed sales were reported to the MLS of Central Oregon last month, compared to 109 in July 2008.

There are currently 1,068 active listings on the MLS. At July's rate of sales, this represents just over 7 months of inventory, which is a relatively healthy market (generally 6 months of inventory is considered to represent a balanced market).

While the overall market is becoming more balanced, certain price segments are doing better than others. There are 269 properties currently listed for $500,000 or more. In July, only 19 such properties were reported sold. At this rate, there is over 14 months of inventory. Conversely, 133 houses were reported sold for less than $500,000 and there are currently 800 listings in this price range, equaling roughly 6 months of inventory. And at $250,000 and below, there is just over 4 months of available inventory, with 91 reported sales in July and 379 houses currently listed for sale.

If you'd like to see houses in your price range, just give me a call.

New Home Sales Rise

Click here for the details about the rise in national new homes sales

Bend Sales Activity Shows Continued Improvement

The pace of home sales continued to show improvement in June, with 132 sales reported for the month, an increase of 13.8% from a year earlier.

Through the first 6 months of the year, sales activity has increased 8.9%, with the pace of sales picking up in the 2nd quarter. The number of sold properties increased 13.3% in the April thru May period compared with the same months in 2008.

Much of the improved sales activity can be attributed to lower home prices, with the median price of homes sold in the 2nd quarter down 31.5% year over year, from $306k in Q2 2008 to $209.5k in Q2 2009.

In addition to lower prices, the federal government is offering a tax credit of up to $8,000 to home buyers who have not owned a principal residence in the last 3 years.

To find out more about how to take advantage of today's opportunities, call me at 541.410.9060 or send me an email at Dan@DanEvansRealEstate.com.

Short Sales and Foreclosures in Today's Market

There is a lot of news about distressed properties in today's real estate market. Though short sales and foreclosures are both considered "distressed sales," the processes and your success in buying one are very different from each other.

While buying a foreclosure generally only requires that you get the lender/seller/owner (typically a bank) to agree to your offer price and terms, a short sale requires not only the seller/borrower's approval but the seller's lender (or in many cases, lenders) must also accept the price and terms of the contract. This is a HUGE difference.

The following recap of May sales sheds some light on just how divergent these two types of transactions can be.

Of the 119 total closed sales in May for stick built houses on less than an acre in Bend, 13 were short sales (10.9%) and 54 were foreclosures (45.4%). Contrast those percentages to the proportion of houses currently listed for sale that are short sales and foreclosures; 32.9% and 5%, respectively.

So while short sales account for nearly 1 in 3 houses listed for sale, they make up just over 1 in 10 closed sales. On the other hand, only 1 in 20 houses for sale is a foreclosure but nearly half of closed sales last month were bank owned!

In addition, the time it took to close the 13 successful short sales last month was a median of 131 days. On the contrary, the median number of days it took for a foreclosure sale to close was 75, nearly 2 months shorter! (The median time on the market for all sales last month was 107 days).

If you or someone you know would like to learn more about the differences between traditional transactions, short sales and foreclosures, please give me a call. I'd be happy to talk with you about the many important differences you need to know about, whether buying or selling.

May Home Sales Continue Upswing

Sales of stick built homes on less than one acre in the Bend area increased 14% in May from a year earlier. 122 sales were reported to the MLS of Central Oregon last month, compared to 107 in May of 2008.

The time it took to sell a house also improved, with the median time on the market for sales closed in May totaling 106 days, versus 164 days a year earlier.

The median sale price for homes sold in May was $217,450, down 28.7% from May 2008. The median price increased from April's $195,000 and from $215,000 for houses sold through the first 4 months of the year however.

April Home Sales - The Good, The Bad and......

The Good
Bend home sales continued their upward trend in April, with 105 stick built houses on less than an acre of land reported sold for the month. This marks an increase of nearly 13% from the same month a year earlier, when 93 homes were sold.

Sales activity is up more than 5% through the first four months of this year over the same time period last year.

Time on the market also continues to shorten, with the median time from listing to closing for April sales reported to be 116 days, down 20 days (or nearly 15%) from a year earlier.

The Bad
6 of every 10 homes sold in April were distressed properties, with bank owned houses accounting for 43% of sales and short sales making up another 17%.

While short sales held fairly steady at around 17% of all sales, bank owned property sales increased in April from the first quarter of the year, when they made up roughly 32% of residential sales. This is even more astonishing when considering that bank owned properties account for only about 6.9% of all houses currently listed for sale in Bend.


The Ugly
Home prices continued their decline in April. The median price of homes sold last month was down more than 27.5% from a year earlier, and down 11.8% from the first quarter of this year. The median price of April sales was $195,000, down from $270,000 in May 2008 and $221,000 in the January through March period of 2009.

Opportunity
While it's become common knowledge that home sellers must be realistic in pricing their houses to sell, the current market has created some tremendous opportunities for today's home buyers.

With interest rates on 30 year fixed rate loans right around 5%, the federal government offering "first time buyers" an $8,000 tax credit (defined as someone who has not owned a primary residence in the last 3 years) and prices in Bend down to where they were in about 2004, a buyer can put just 3.5% down using a 30 year fixed rate FHA loan and have a principal and interest payment of only $1,023 per month for the purchase of a home priced at April's median of $195,000.

If you or someone you know is thinking of buying or selling, please give me a call. I'd be happy to discuss the opportunities available to you in today's market.

February Homes Sales Up

Sales of single family stick built houses on less than one acre in Bend increased in February from a year earlier, according to information reported to the MLS of Central Oregon.

61 sales have been reported so far and I expect this number will be even higher as more closed sales from late February are added this week. But even without any additional sales, the 61 posted so far represents an improvement of nearly 20% from a year earlier, when only 51 sales were closed.

What's Selling?

Nearly 60% of the February closings were distressed sales, with 21 bank-owned houses and 16 "short sale" properties sold during the month.

The volume of distressed sales is leading to lower overall prices, with the median sale price of February sales at $215,000 for 1962sf, or $109.6/sf. A year ago, the median price was $320,000 for 2008sf, or $159.4/sf.

While the fall off in prices does indicate continued weakness, the uptick in sales shows that more people are ready, willing and able to purchase a home in today's market.

If you or someone you know is considering selling or buying a home, feel free to get in touch to find out just what you can expect in today's ever changing market.

"Distressed" Properties Account For 1 In 4 Houses For Sale

There are currently 1167 stick built houses on less than one acre of land in the Bend area listed for sale in the MLS of Central Oregon. Of these, over 25% are showing as distress sales, meaning either a "short sale" or "bank owned" property.

A transaction is considered a "short sale" when net sale proceeds (sale price less transaction fees) yield less than what is currently owed on the property. In order to close the sale, the property owner must either pay the difference between the net sale proceeds and what is owed or get the lien holder(s) to accept less than the amount owed. There are 196 stick built houses currently listed as a "short sale," accounting for nearly 17% of the available inventory of houses for sale.

In addition, there are 99 houses in Bend owned by a lender and listed for sale. This represents 8.5% of stick built houses currently listed for sale in the area. In most cases, the lender has come in to possession of the property following a foreclosure proceeding.

Of the 66 closed sales of stick built houses on less than one acre in the Bend area in January, 29 (or 43.9%) were reported as distress sales.

Banks Announce Foreclosure Freeze

3 of the largest banks in the U.S. announced earlier today that they will suspend foreclosure actions on principal residences for at least a few weeks while Congress and the Obama administration work on crafting a plan to stabilize the financial system.

J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America, each of which have recently received billions of dollars from the federal government's TARP plan, issued separate announcements Friday disclosing their plans to institute temporary moratoriums on new foreclosure activity.

Read the article from the Wall Street Journal here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123454524404184109.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

New Listing in Gated Community of Mtn. High, Bend

This single level home features 3 bedrooms, a den/office, 2 bathrooms, a large dining/breakfast area in the kitchen plus a formal dining room. The quiet, impeccably landscaped .60 acre setting is on a quiet cul-de-sac and features majestic ponderosa pines, a large rear deck and hot tub. Three car garage and new roof and water heater in 2008. Mountain High features 9 hole golf, a pool and tennis courts. Really a terrific buy at only $399,000. Call me today to see this beautiful home

Citi Endores Cramdowns

Citgroup agreed earlier today to support legislation being pushed by some Senators to allow bankruptcy judges to require lenders to restructure mortgages.

In a process referred to as a "cramdown," the judges could lower the principal amount of a mortgage loan so that it equals the current market value of the property. In addition to lowering principal, the bill being considered also would allow judges to lower a loan's interest rate, extend the term of the loan or use a combination of all three actions.

Up to this point, the financial services industry has resisted such legislation, claiming that it would force them to raise interest rates to offset revenue lost from such restructurings.

But after the government pumped $45 billion in new capital into Citi last year as well as agreeing to stand behind hundreds of billions in potential losses from the company's risky assets, the new congress has much more leverage with which to push through such legislation.

Stay tuned!

Sales Stall While Re-Fi's Boom

Despite record low interest rates, home sales in the Bend area continued to stagger along in December.

Just 69 closed sales of single family, stick built houses on less than one acre in Bend have been reported to MLS for the month, compared to 81 in December 2007 and 70 in November.

There are currently more than 1000 completed houses for sale in Bend. Based on the rate of sales over the last couple of months, the absorption rate is over 14 months. A market is generally considered balanced when there is about 5 to 6 months of inventory. Obviously we have a ways to go before we get back close to equilibrium.

Prices also continue to slump. The median sale price for December closings of stick built houses on less than 1 acre was $224,900, with a median dollar per square foot of $126.2/sf. A year ago, the median $/sf number was $160.6/sf.

One bright spot is loan refinancings. A friend of mine owns a local mortgage company and says they are swamped, with re-fi applications making up about 90% of his current business. And it's no wonder; with rates now near 5%, refinancing a $300,000 loan from a 6.5% interest rate will cut the monthly payment by about $300!

So contrary to many rumors flying around, lenders are still making loans. With an adequate debt-to-income ratio, a good credit score and income that can be documented (with a W-2, for example), a buyer can get an FHA loan with as little as 3% down and an interest rate around 5%. At Bend's recent median price of approximately $225,000, that's only $6750 down and a monthly payment of around $1175 per month.

Please feel free to call or email me for more information about Bend real estate matters or to talk about buying or selling real estate throughout Central Oregon.