Four Month Numbers Show Big Change

It's hardly news that housing prices in Central Oregon have receded from the highs reached from late 2005 until the beginning of 2007. But going over the sales numbers from the first four months of this year and comparing them to those of the last several years yields some very interesting things.

Sales Activity Finding Its Footing?
There were 158 reported sales of stick-built houses on less than an acre in the Bend/Tumalo/Alfalfa area from January 1 through April 30 this year. While this is considerably less than the volume for that same period going back to at least 2001 (in 2005, there were 513 sales reported!), it is close to the 168 houses sold in the first four months of 2007.

Based on these comparable numbers and the recent activity I'm seeing, I hazard to guess that we're now bumping bottom in terms of sales activity.

Relative Prices
The median sale price of the 158 houses sold on less than one acre from Jan. 1 through Apr. 30 was $245,000, down about 5% from the $258,650 reported over this same period in 2007. But what's most telling is what you get for your money!

$258,650 in the first four months of 2007 would buy you a 3 bedroom, 2 bath house with 1333 square feet. That's $194 per square foot. Over this same period this year, the median house reported sold grew to 1596 square feet and cost $245,000. That's only $154 per square foot, or 21% less than just one year ago!

Historical Price Appreciation
While some years we see a higher rate of price appreciation and other years a lower one, the annual increase in house prices going back several decades averages around 8%.

Starting with the median price per square foot reported for the first 4 months of 2001, $94.8, and adding 8% year over year, the median price/sf in 2008 would come in at $162.5.

At $154 per square foot, the median price per square foot for the reported sales in the Jan. thru April period this year is more than 5% lower than the historical average.

Another sign that we're bumping bottom?

Zillow Reports Bend Area Prices Down 13.4%

According to Zillow, home prices in Bend decreased 13.4% in the 1st quarter compared to the 1st quarter of 2007.

Though I don't rely on Zillow to determine home prices (especially in Central Oregon), these latest numbers are somewhat in line with what we know already; prices have come down from the highs reached in the summer of 2006.